The purchase of the pipeline might not have changed the minds of those inclined to distrust the Liberals’ approach to the energy file. ... Biden stand in the polls 1 week from U.S. election. The New Democrats are hoping they will not end up on the bottom of that pile, particularly in ridings where they lack incumbents. Burlington had gone Conservative in the three previous elections and, with the sole exception of the 2014 vote, has elected the Ontario PCs in every election since 1943 at the provincial level. coast — where the pipeline ends and the oil tankers begin. INCREDIBLY strong showing by Green Party of Canada leader Annamie Paul in what was supposed to be a "safe" Liberal riding that Morneau won with 57.4% via @ElectionsCan_E #cdnpoli #TorontoCentre Our York-City Centre coverage area is hosting three 100 Debates events, including Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre and Toronto-St. Paul's. Also worth watching are the high-profile candidates who broke with mainstream parties and are now striking out on their own: former Liberal ministers Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, running as Independents, and Maxime Bernier, leader of the People’s Party. And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party can’t take anything for granted. The Greens have had Victoria in their sights for some time: it is next door to Elizabeth May’s Saanich–Gulf Islands riding and the party finished second, with about a third of the vote in the riding, in both a 2012 byelection and the 2015 general election. The Conservative path to a majority government runs through the suburbs in places like Toronto and Vancouver, but in Ottawa as well. One Liberal cabinet minister who could be sunk by the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline is Jonathan Wilkinson, who held the fisheries and oceans portofolio. The good news for Philpott is that this part of the country is one of the few that has elected an Independent MP in the last 50 years: Tony Roman won York North as an Independent in 1984. This web site is the creation of P.J. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in Regina–Lewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. If the New Democrats are going to reconnect with their labour base, then this riding — in which about 16 per cent of the labour force works in manufacturing — should be high on their list. Éric Grenier Former MPP George Smitherman, who left provincial politics to join the race to become Toronto's next mayor, held the riding for 10 years. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. Marie-France Lalonde, who has held the seat for the provincial Liberals since 2014, will try to take his place. If the Bloc Québécois wins Beloeil–Chambly, it will accomplish something it hasn’t since 2008 — by sending its leader to the House of Commons. She’ll be facing off against former Liberal candidate and leadership hopeful David Bertschi, who will be carrying the Conservative banner this time. Before that victory by former mayor and 20-year B.C. Depending on how the vote divvies up, there is the potential for Vancouver Granville to become a four-cornered contest this time — one that could go in any direction. For the Toronto by-election in 2020, people in both York Centre and Toronto Centre are heading to the polls but the deadline to vote by mail is fast approaching. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. The judgment of those voters on the government’s approach to reconciliation likely will decide this fall whether the Liberals are able to take a seat they’ve only won twice over the last 65 years. He’ll be up against Richmond Hill’s former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis, who was defeated when he opted to run in a neighbouring riding in the last election. The contest is largely between the NDP and the Conservatives in Essex, but the resonance of the NDP’s criticisms of the Liberal government’s approach to free trade will be tested. Greens made history in April when they formed the party’s first Official Opposition anywhere in Canada. But Quebec has been the most unpredictable province over the last few elections. One of the trio of new fed/prov Downtown Toronto seats that the once-bullish NDP hoped would be competitive but turned out to be federal Lib-landslide instead, Toronto Centre is the one with the least NDP history (having previously been hampered by Rosedale in its northern reaches) but the most 'potential' (the presence of a fair bit of social housing, the relative absence of condos, ergo the lowest notional Tory share of the three). I think this should be too close to call until the parties have nominated candidates. The previous riding results are practically irrelevant given the drastic shifts in this election. There are some opportunities for the Conservatives on the East Coast, particularly where some high-profile Liberal incumbents have retired. Pipeline access is an important issue for oil industry workers in Alberta, for Atlantic Canadians who pay high gas prices and for British Columbians who worry about their vulnerable coastline. Voting in two federal byelections is underway in Toronto Centre and York Centre. She might be helped by the mixed election results in the riding over the last two elections. One-fourth of its population lists Chinese as their mother tongue and nearly two-thirds of its residents are immigrants: Don Valley North is a very diverse riding. The riding is typically Conservative territory and voted for the party and its predecessors in every election since 1972, with three exceptions: in 1993, in 1997 and in 2015, when Joe Peschisolido — a former Canadian Alliance MP — won it for the Liberals. Even with low provincial polling numbers the Grits will put a lot of resources in this riding. In such extraordinary times, we need someone who will fight to improve the lives of every person in this riding. With more seats than most provinces, the Greater Toronto Area decides elections. Still, it will be difficult for the Liberals to win any seats in Alberta — including in downtown Calgary, the financial epicentre of the province’s oil industry. But the NDP’s Robert Aubin only held on to his seat by less than a thousand votes in 2015, when the Liberals finished a close second. Safe NDP call! But in the absence of an NDP star candidate, I expect Liberals (running a good ground game) to still win by 5-12%. Fast-growing and full of young families and commuters, it is perhaps the region of the country where pocketbook issues matter most. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. While that could make this riding low-hanging fruit for the Liberals, the Conservatives also have high hopes in former Trois-Rivières mayor Yves Lévesque. Lisa Raitt was one of the Conservative MPs in the GTA who withstood the Liberal surge, winning by a margin of five points in 2015. You can vote in advance polls up to and … Berthier–Maskinongé was one of the rare ridings in Quebec where the NDP’s share of the vote actually increased between 2011 and 2015 — largely thanks to Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the parachute candidate from Ottawa who made her home in the riding after unexpectedly winning it in the NDP’s orange wave. Spent some time here over the weekend. One of the two was Calgary Centre, where former Alberta Liberal MLA Kent Hehr prevailed by a margin of just 1.2 percentage points over the Conservatives’ Joan Crockatt. July 15, 2019 Ontario Predictions Update ON predicted seat totals: Lib 70, CPC 41, NDP 9, Ind 1. The Conservatives are angling for a comeback here, which should offer a real test of the party’s overtures to the Quebec nationalist vote. Marco Mendocino won a closely-fought race against former finance minister Joe Oliver in 2015, returning Eglinton–Lawrence to its Liberal roots. Balancing the environment and the economy has always been complicated for the Liberals — and never more so than when Justin Trudeau’s government bought the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding, is pictured on Thursday October 22, 2020. Interior, where the pipeline issue plays differently than it does in the rest of the province. Depending on how the vote splits, any one of the other three parties could come out on top — a situation that could repeat itself in other parts of Quebec. What will Quebec do this time? The history of this riding, both at the provincial and federal levels, has been solidly Liberal — the federal party has lost it only once since 1962. The Liberals pulled off a big win in Kanata–Carleton to the west of the capital when Karen McCrimmon nearly doubled her party’s share of the vote between 2011 and 2015, capturing 51 per cent. B.C. The Liberals swept all of Toronto’s seats in the last election, but both Stephen Harper in 2011 and Doug Ford in 2018 were able to win in places like Etobicoke and Scarborough. With the 2019 federal election fast approaching, there are still multiple ridings in the GTA where polls from 338Canada show the race is still a toss-up. He then expanded his party’s caucus to three seats in 2018, winning his own Fredericton South seat by a huge margin. Andrew Saxton, who won the seat for the Conservatives in 2008 and 2011 and finished second-to-last in the 2017 leadership race, will be running against Wilkinson again. More importantly, a 40% gap is simply extraordinary to overcome (not that it can't be done -- ask Jack Harris). If the Conservatives can’t take this seat back, even a minority government might be out of the picture for Scheer. The Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc are all hoping to benefit from the collapse of the NDP in Quebec — and those hopes intersect in Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot. Quebec was key to the NDP’s rise to Official Opposition status in the 2011 election. • Sept 15, 2019. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris. There are 338 federal ridings in Canada and voters will be going to the polls in each on Oct. 21, 2019. The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. Two-thirds of the population in Brampton East is South Asian, according to the 2016 census. Winning a majority government means winning most, if not all, of Mississauga’s six seats. Its construction will create jobs in the Interior and the natural resource sector plays a bigger role in the local economy there — factors that could help Lake win the seat. And can Elizabeth May’s Greens, Maxime Bernier’s new People’s Party or Independents like Jody Wilson-Raybould change the electoral map? New Democrats say they’re optimistic about the odds of some of their former MPs winning back the seats they lost four years ago. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. With a significant francophone population, Orléans was long a Liberal stronghold: the party lost it only twice throughout the 20th century. © Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster. The NDP has a familiar name on the ballot in Svend Robinson, who was the NDP MP for the Burnaby portion of the riding from 1979 to 2004. It was a big breakthrough for the Liberals when they won Lac-Saint-Jean from the Conservatives in a 2017 byelection, as this was the riding where the party put up its worst result in the country east of Saskatchewan in the 2015 federal election. The party hasn’t held Toronto Centre since 1993. The Conservatives won it by a wide margin in 2011 but lost it by just six points in 2015 to the Liberals’ Marwan Tabbara. Toet defeated the NDP’s Jim Maloway by 300 votes in 2011. The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points last election, and would have swept up 23 of 25 seats if the 2018 boundaries had been in use. But the party also says it believes it could make inroads into new territory, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. The Conservatives hold the neighbouring seat of Richmond Centre and are looking to regain control of both seats in Richmond, which they managed to do in both the 2008 and 2011 elections. It’s just one of the many suburban Greater Vancouver ridings the Conservatives need to win if they are to form a government; the party is hoping to take it back with a re-match between Hogg and former cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay. A road classification system designates streets into different groups or classes according to the type of service each group is intended to provide. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. This time, Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc incumbent and a former leader of the party, is hoping to hold off not only the Liberals but also the Conservatives, who have a local mayor on the ballot. Mark Eyking nearly lost Sydney–Victoria to the Conservatives in 2011, holding on by just 2.1 percentage points. If Scheer can pull that off, he’s probably going to be the next prime minister. The closest competition is too far off, this riding won't swing. News Mainstreet Research polls suggest big Liberal lead in Scarborough Centre, close race in NS riding At the very least, it will complicate the electoral dynamics in this seat, which elected a Liberal in 2015 but went Conservative in both the 2008 and 2011 elections. The New Democrats in Regina and Saskatoon were hamstrung for years by rural-urban ridings that combined parts of the cities with wide sections of conservative-voting rural areas, but that changed in 2015 when the two cities got urban ridings of their own. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. In neighbouring B.C., the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion finds its highest level of support in the B.C. In Toronto Centre, a diverse riding in the heart of downtown Toronto, broadcaster Marci Ien is running for the Liberals. Voters in two Toronto ridings will head to the polls next month to choose a new MP. Ward 13 Councillor Office. The by-election in York Centre is as a result of the resignation of Michael Levitt, a Liberal first elected in 2015. At the other end of the country, some coastal residents are lamenting the pipeline that won’t be built: Energy East. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell was once one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country until Pierre Lemieux and the Conservatives won it in 2006. This is the seat Anne McLellan used to win for the party under Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin and it has a significant number of progressive voters: the Alberta NDP won a majority of ballots cast within the boundaries of this riding in the April provincial election. The Conservatives can’t be ruled out, either: if Robinson and the Liberals’ Terry Beech split the vote, the Conservatives could win with only a minor improvement over their 2015 performance. The NDP has never had much success in the wider suburbs around Toronto, but the party is hoping that Jagmeet Singh will change that. That victory marked the first time the Liberals had won in Kelowna since 1968 — the last time the Liberals were mounting their first campaign under a leader named Trudeau. New Democrats win the area’s two Burnaby seats in 2017 and could give the federal New Democrats an issue to rally around. Held by Conservative Cathy McLeod since 2008, the riding was a relatively close three-way race in 2015, with the Conservatives taking 35 per cent of the vote and NDP and Liberals taking about 30 per cent apiece. Without an incumbent, and with a portion of the local party apparatus having backed Weir throughout the dispute, the New Democrats look hobbled — which presents an opportunity to the Conservatives. The Liberals won in 2015 thanks to their support in the Lower Mainland portion of the riding, but they took few polls in the Interior portion. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. The suburban region around Montreal is coveted territory for both the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals — and the key to winning here is to pick up the votes the NDP has left on the table. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservatives’ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought — thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government. Many NDP signs across the riding combined with a non-existent PC campaign (their campaign office was in darkness at 7pm on a Monday night) that it only makes sense to switch this riding from Liberal to at least TCTC. It is a priority for CBC to create a website that is accessible to all Canadians including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges. That’s part of the reason why that controversial Saudi LAV deal is a particularly thorny issue for both parties — those LAVs are built in London–Fanshawe. B.C. It also had been held by the Ontario Liberals since 1985 — until last year, when the Ontario PCs took it with 50 per cent of the vote. Judy Klassen, who scored an upset for the Manitoba Liberals in the 2016 provincial election here, will be carrying the federal party’s banner this time. After Brampton East, Surrey–Newton has the most South Asians and Indian immigrants of any riding in the country. ... although the riding has been a Liberal stronghold since 1997. Or will the Conservatives benefit from a split in the vote and win a seat the Ontario PCs secured by a 22-point margin in 2018? I've lived in Church and Wellesley before, and despite this riding having a very active NDP and some areas where the party does quite well, I expect this to hold as Liberal. He is a first-time candidate in the upcoming federal election. The Conservatives’ odds are slim, but the CAQ has its only presence on the island of Montreal here. Located in a traditional swing region of the country, Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill was won by the Liberals by just 2.1 percentage points in 2015 after the three ridings that existed before were swept by the Conservatives in 2011. The NDP dropped four points in York Centre to less than six per cent of the vote, while the Greens dropped almost one point to 2.6 per cent. The New Democrats were shut out in Atlantic Canada in 2015 and have struggled in a series of provincial elections since. The federal party won Hamilton East–Stoney Creek in 2006, 2008 and 2011, before former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina took it for the Liberals in 2015. My sense is everywhere except Cabbagetown and maybe the Village is going heavily for the NDP. Voters in Quebec have been fickle in recent years. As the central figure in that story, Wilson-Raybould has raised her personal profile enough to give her a chance to pull off the rare feat of election as an Independent candidate. 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